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ACCESSION NO: 1015679 SUBFILE: CRIS
PROJ NO: NMGanguli-18G AGENCY: NIFA NM.
PROJ TYPE: AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT PROJ STATUS: EXTENDED
CONTRACT/GRANT/AGREEMENT NO: 2018-68002-28109 PROPOSAL NO: 2017-07298
START: 01 APR 2018 TERM: 31 MAR 2025 FY: 2021
GRANT AMT: $1,188,000 GRANT YR: 2018
AWARD TOTAL: $1,188,000
INITIAL AWARD YEAR: 2018

INVESTIGATOR: Steele, C. M.

PERFORMING INSTITUTION:
NEW MEXICO STATE UNIVERSITY
1620 STANDLEY DR ACADEMIC RESH A RM 110
LAS CRUCES, NEW MEXICO 88003-1239

PARTICIPATORY APPROACHES TO AGROECOSYSTEM RESILIENCE IN TIMES OF DROUGHT (ARID): AN EXAMPLE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT

NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY: Agricultural lands of the western US are diverse and correspondingly have different responses or vulnerabilities to drought and climate change. Developing short and long-term management strategies that are proactive rather than reactive is essential for maintaining economic and environmental viability. This is especially true for non-irrigated lands, which depend on uncontrolled natural inputs, such as precipitation, that will become more unpredictable with increased climate variability. Using land-use and land-cover analyses in the Southern Great Plains in conjunction with descriptive interviews and surveys of land managers and residents across three counties (Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, and Las Animas, CO), we will identify how individuals make land and groundwater management decisions. Based on the premise that sustainable management solutions are more effectively developed and more likely adopted using participatory approaches including citizen science, our research and extension teams will foster the co-production of knowledge and disseminate this information in formal and informal programs and educational materials.Grazing lands and irrigated agriculture are directly impacted if well-produced water availability is reduced or water quality is impaired. Rather than being taken by surprise, monitoring and analyzing groundwater and precipitation data will allow producers to plan for various scenarios. Such monitoring strategies have the potential to influence production enterprises and make salient the need to develop adaptive management strategies. As such, an understanding of groundwater resources and climate patterns can help inform strategic land management decisions at both local and regional scales. Coupling this information with other types of monitoring (e.g., precipitation, plant productivity) at the ranch or farm level can provide the fine scale information many landowners desire to make management decisions about their properties, while contributing to regional and national datasets.

OBJECTIVES: Based on the premise that sustainable management solutions are more effectively developed and adopted using participatory approaches including citizen science, our research and extension teams will identify how agricultural and water policies impact individual land and water management decisions. Persistent drought, dwindling water resources, and climate variability in western agroecosystems require anticipatory management. This project will foster co-production of knowledge to develop short and long-term management strategies that are proactive rather than reactive to maintain ecological, social, and economic resilience.Objective 1: Link land-use/land-cover dynamics to agricultural and water policies at multiple spatial scales within the Southern Great Plains agroecosystem. This objective will specifically identify the following:Land-use/land-cover changes that have occurred at the landscape and individual plot scale from 1990 to present.Agricultural and water policies that impact land-use/land cover.The role of drought and climate variability on agriculture and water policies?Objective 2: Support effective land and water management by co-producing land use and policy knowledge using citizen science and participatory approaches. This objective will specifically identify the following:How do households perceive water resources, LULCC, policy, climate variability and drought in the Southern Great Plains? How do those perceptions impact household land and water use?Do citizen science and participatory approaches designed to co-produce knowledge with participants alter stakeholders' perceptions/use of policy and land-use decisionsCan citizen science precipitation and groundwater monitoring projects be used to foster social-ecological resilience in agroecological communities?Objective 3: Develop extension/outreach programs and materials to support resilience-based management strategies in response to drought and climate variability.

APPROACH: To link land-use/land-cover dynamics to agricultural and water policies at multiple spatial scales within the Southern Great Plains agroecosystem will use a mixed methods approach that combines quantitative remote sensing and geospatial analyses with qualitative ethnographic field research. Our analysis will make use of 3 data streams: (1) remotely sensed data captured using traditional and emerging platforms, (2) archival agricultural and water policy data, and (3) survey and interview data. During Years 1 and 2, we will integrate 3 data streams to address the impacts of policy on LULCC under climate variability. First, we will develop a database of agricultural and water policies within the SGP through an archival search of local, state, and federal records. Second, we will conduct semi-structured key-informant interviews with stakeholders to clarify policy impacts on LULCC. Lastly, we will combine these two qualitative data streams with the quantitative LULCC analysis and metrics. Qualitative information gleaned from the key-informant interviews and archival data will provide additional context regarding the impact of these policies on LULCC. The policy database will be shared electronically through a project website and we will incorporate policy data into the interactive online maps. Results will be communicated through peer-reviewed journal articles and extension activities.We will complete a 4-year citizen science and participatory management assessment in which households will co-produce land, water, and policy management knowledge under three alternative intervention schemes. Interventions will focus on development of socio-ecological resilience to climate variability through alternative means. In addition to producing a foundational groundwater and precipitation dataset, we will identify how households perceive water resources, LULCC, policy, climate variability and drought in the Southern Great Plains and assess how these perceptions impact household land and water use. Statistical analyses will inform policy makers on relationships between household perceptions and/or knowledge of precipitation and groundwater recharge rates and land and water use decisions. These results will help inform policymakers of the impact of bottom-up (GW monitoring) and top-down (CoCoRaHS) participatory projects on agroecosystem resilience. Results will be communicated through peer-reviewed journal articles and extension activities described below.Throughout the entire project, but particularly Years 4 and 5, we will transfer information to community members and partner institutions via. a variety of extension/outreach programs including a project website with user-friendly interactive LULCC maps to support local agricultural, policy, and land management decisions, a searchable policy database, and downloadable project summaries and fact sheets. We will create and distribute educational outreach tools that interpret results related to land-cover/land-use change, hydrogeology, land and water policy, and climate data for the study area in ways that are both useful and accessible to producers. We will present project findings at community meetings, county fairs, academic and industry conferences, and through peer-reviewed publications. Members of the extension team will work directly with county extension agents, Federal Agency personnel (e.g., NRCS), Master Gardeners, and the USDA Climate Hubs.Extension activities will be evaluated in multiple ways at various venues in Years 4 and 5. The mail/online household survey administered in Year 5 will include questions about the usefulness of outreach/extension activities. An exit survey will be administered for all public extension and education events, including the adaptive co-management meetings, research-based extension demonstration activities, and all general extension programming. This survey will capture perceived quality, value, and learning indicators, as well suggestions for improving project deliverables and will allow us to cross compare the impact of various extension activities. The impact of the demonstration plots and gardens will be measured by the number of visitors as well as participation in data collection. The impact of extension guides will be evaluated based on the number of online views and downloads. Workshops on pollinator identification and habitat installation will be evaluated using pre and post workshop quizzes. The impact of the Master Gardener curriculum will be evaluated using a survey to gauge knowledge gained and implementation of habitat management for pollinators in arid climates.

PROGRESS: 2023/04 TO 2024/03
Target Audience:Our target audience includes private agricultural landowners and managers, grassroots producer organizations, Soil and Water Conservation Districts, scientists, and county, state, and federal agency personnel. During the last year, the research teams at OU and OSU interacted with participants within the tri-county/tri-state study area to complete data collection through household surveys and UAV flights. They also reached the scientific community through publications and presentations at scientific meetings. During 2023, the Groundwater Team worked directly, visiting with the producer participants who are a part of the groundwater monitoring component of the ARID project. In October 2023, the research team at Clovis Agricultural Science Center (ASC) presented at theASA-CSSA-SSSA International Annual Meeting sharing findings and knowledge generated by their work for the ARID project with other scientists. The team at NMSU's Innovative Media Research and Extension lab (IMRE) is responsible for social media and web-based outreach. They continued to reach followers on Facebook, Twitter (X), and Instagram, as well as through Youtube and maintaining current content on the ARID website.They also engaged with communities of interest at meetings (Prairie Partners December 5, 2023, Quivira Coalition Water & Wildlife Field Day April 27-28, 2023; online quarterly Southwest Drought Learning Network meetings) Changes/Problems:Objective 1: Link land-use/land-cover dynamics to agricultural and water policies at multiple spatial scales within the Southern Great Plains. The only major change in PI Fagin's portion of the research is the repeat sUAS flights. We were able to complete 68 flights in 2018 and 2019. However, the COVID-19 travel restrictions prevented us from returning to the field to conduct the repeat flights. In the summer of 2023, Fagin scheduled several flights with participants in conjunction with the repeat household surveys. However, only a small fraction of previous participants agreed to the repeat flights (much of this was due to inability to contact them). Others were willing to allow Fagin's team to do the flights, but they had difficulty scheduling them due to tight schedules for both the team and the participants'. As a result, they have begun working with the aerial imagery they already have from 2018 and 2019, realizing that repeat flights on most participants' lands are likely not feasible with the time remaining on the project (with or without additional no-cost extension). Objective 2:Support effective land and water management by co-producing land use and policy knowledge using citizen science and participatory approaches. Overall, PI Vadjunec was able to complete 103 repeat household surveys (during 2023) of the original 145. This was larger than they had hoped, given the interruption of the pandemic. Of those who did not repeat the survey they experienced regular drop out that one might expect after an extreme event like COVID and 2 years without fieldwork. However, there were also pandemic and other related deaths, as well as several producers who sold out after supply chain issues and other pandemic-related stressors. Being late with the repeat household survey, and the related database makes the team late with the analysis and write-up. However, now that the second repeat survey database is made, they are beginning to be able to put the big picture together. Connecting the LULCC analysis, subsidy data, and household data, will be the next big step and will likely take onemore year. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Students working with the OU-OSU team received mentoring and support in data analysis, developing outreach materials (e.g., ArcGIS storymaps), in public speaking and communications, and peer-reviewed paper preparation and publication. One ARID funded student was part of a group trained in using the OU small unmanned aircraft system A student and a postdoc working with the ASC-Clovis team received fieldwork training, mentoring, and support in preparing and delivering conference presentations. In 2023, the IMRE at NMSU mentored four undergraduate work-study students and three high school interns in developing graphic design and social media outreach materials for ARID. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The OU-OSU team also attended the county fairs (with an outreach table) in both Cimarron County, OK and Union County, OK. They visited with over 400 people during these 2 events and provided outreach, extension, and engagement materials to the residents of the study area. During 2023, the Groundwater Team worked directly, visiting with the producer participants who are a part of the groundwater monitoring component of the ARID project. The team provides information about groundwater quality and quantity directly to each participant after each biannual monitoring season for their use in decision-making on their ranch or farm.Throughout the project (except for during lockdown) and in 2023, the Groundwater Team mailed individual progress reports to each participant in the groundwater component every six months to apprise them of their progress in gathering data about their well(s). In 2023 they continued these mailings and they also presentedthe information they are gathering and preliminary conclusions to greater southern High Plains communities by including ARID information in presentations at Soil and Water Conservation District meetings and other gatherings. Co-PI Ghimire (ASC Clovis) also presented onmeasuring impacts of farming practices on soil carbon and nitrogen loss as greenhouse gases to an audience of 80 stakeholders at Clovis Field Day. The NMSU IMRE team continues to post updated information to the ARID websiteas well as sharing information on social media. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Objective 1: Link land-use/land-cover dynamics to agricultural and water policies at multiple spatial scales within the Southern Great Plains The OU team will refine land cover datasets, and conductquality control assessments, including an accuracy assessment of the land cover maps.Further ground truthing will require a short period of spring/summer fieldwork. Objective 2: Support effective land and water management by co-producing land use and policy knowledge using citizen science and participatory approaches PI Vadjunec has finished creating and recording the second household database during 2023. She has begun to analyze the data fromthe second survey. This coming year (if NCE is granted) she will complete the time series analysis to look at the actual changes in land use and perceptions between the first and second household surveys. If time permits,Vadjunec and Fagin will integrate the Land Use Land Cover Change analysis (above) with the household survey data. Once these data are combined, they will be able to produce robust community-centered deliverables and factsheets. The Groundwater team (PI Ziegler) has completed all the proposed monitoring and data collection for the groundwater component of the project and are now compiling data for each participant to provide them with a final report that will include all of their static water level, chemistry, and recharge data, along with conclusions and recommendations tailored to their local geohydrologic situation. They are also working with the NMSU Extension team to developshort documentary videos about how our producers use this data to potentially change their strategies in both land and groundwater use. They will be developing a final report that will potentially be the framework for one or more publications. Objective 3: Develop extension/outreach programs and materials to support resilience-based management strategies in response to drought and climate variability. PI Ghimire and his team willwrap up data collection,analysis, and publications related to this project. They will also contribute to important extension eventsto disseminate project outcomes on climate resilience. Major events targeted for 2024 include "Carbon Management and Soil Health Farmers Workshop in July 2024" and ASC Clovis annual field day in August 6, 2024. The NMSU IMRE team will collaborate with content managers for NMSU Extension websites and the USDA Southwest and Southern Plains Climate Hubs websites to copy all relevant ARID informational and multimedia content to preserve longevity. They will also finish production, publish and share the3 videos in development (Soil Health on Rangelands,Soil Health in Farming Systems,Well Monitoring on Complex Aquifers in the Southern High Plains).

IMPACT: 2023/04 TO 2024/03
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1: Link land-use/land-cover dynamics to agricultural and water policies at multiple spatial scales within the Southern Great Plains The OU-OSU teammade significant progress during the past year due to the first no-cost extension (NCE). This included conducting repeat sUAS flights on several participants' properties, processing the imagery, and distributing results to the participants. Additionally, with the extension, PI Fagin was able to hire both a graduate and undergraduate research assistant, both of whom assisted in updating the land cover datasets. The team has produced two landscape-level datasets. The first draws on existing land cover classification data, the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) that were reclassified to a modified Anderson classification. These data go to 1991, but the early data are problematic due to changes in methodology. For the second dataset, the team used a hybrid remote sensing/GIS approach to capture fine-scale dynamics that are missed using traditional remote sensing methods (e.g. 30 m resolution satellite imagery) and that are not represented on NLCD maps.All agricultural areas, whether center pivot irrigation or traditionally dryland) were manually digitized from the National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) 1 m spatial resolution imagery.They then acquired various existing GIS datasets that represent so-called enduring features, such as lakes, rivers, roads, mines, etc. Next, using image segmentation, they created image objects on resampled NAIP imagery (10 m) to capture woody plant assemblages, then manually attributed these features. Lastly, they combined all of these features into a single layer which can capture fine-scale land cover changes. Currently, they have completed 2020 for all three counties and 2005, 2010, and 2015 for Union County and Cimarron County. Las Animas is still a work in progress for those years--but only the woody plant assemblages need to be completed, all other features have already been captured. Pre-pandemic, the OU-OSU team completed 68 plot/household level flights on participants' properties using a small unoccupied aircraft system (sUAS). Each flight covered approximately 10 acres. In 2023, they returned to the field to do follow-up flights, but were only able to coordinate with a handful of participants. As a result, they are only using the 2018-19 flights for analysis. Related to this work, they have completed and submitted their first paper related to the sUAS flights to a peer-reviewed journal. They plan to complete additional analysis and writing in the coming year. Objective 2: Support effective land and water management by co-producing land use and policy knowledge using citizen science and participatory approaches. In 2023, Co-PI Vadjunec completed qualitative coding regarding the key informant interviews and water use and policy. Her team is currently working on a related manuscript. Theyhave started analyzing household survey data from 2018 and 2022 in relation to policy, land use, and community engagement over time. This data will be linked to the land use - land cover change (LULCC) analysis and subsidy datafor a paper to be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. During 2023, the Groundwater Team worked directly with the producer participants who are a part of the groundwater monitoring component of the ARID project. Their objective was to provide information about groundwater quality and quantity directly to each participant after each biannual monitoring season for their use in decision-making on their ranch or farm. They have completed all proposed monitoring and data collection for the groundwater component of the project and are now compiling data for each participant to provide them with a final report that will include all of their static water level, chemistry, and recharge data, along with conclusions and recommendations tailored to their local geohydrologic situation. Objective 3: Develop extension/outreach programs and materials to support resilience-based management strategies in response to drought and climate variability. Field research on irrigated croplands continued at the Agricultural Science Center in Clovis, including monitoring ofsoil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (N) dynamics and greenhouse gas (CO2 and N2O) emissions as an index of agroecosystem resilience in crop and forage production systems. Work funded at Clovis was published in one peer-reviewed paper in early 2024, and communicated in three presentations at the Annual Tri-Societies meeting (ASA-CSSA-SSSA) in St. Louis. PI Steele and one graduate student also collaborated with the National Drought Mitigation Center, Southwest Climate Hub, Southwest Sustainable Beef Project and others in organizing the annual Southwest Drought Learning Network two-day meeting in Albuquerque (September 27-28, 2023). This meeting broughttogether resource managers, Southwest Drought Learning Network (DLN) members, Tribes, and others interested in drought to engage in peer-to-peer learning related to past drought experiences and lessons learned. During 2023, the NMSU IMRE teamshared team members' publications and educational products on social media and enhanced the website to include additional outreach materials developed by team members. (e.g., Soil Carbon in Rangelands, Carbon Farming in Agroecosystems). They have also been developing three videos (i)Soil Health on Rangelands, (ii)Soil Health in Farming Systems, (iii)Well Monitoring on Complex Aquifers in the Southern High Plains.

PUBLICATIONS (not previously reported): 2023/04 TO 2024/03
1. Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2024 Citation: Carrasco Galvan, B., Vadjunec, J.M., Fagin, T.D. (In press) Lessons from the archives: Understanding historical agricultural change in the Southern Great Plains. Land 2024, 13(2), 196; https://doi.org/10.3390/land13020196
2. Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2024 Citation: Straub, A., Vadjunec, J.M., Fagin, T.D., (In review). Networks of Inclusive Exclusion: Social Capital and Resilient Rural Livelihoods in the Southern Great Plains.Journal of Human Ecology
3. Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2024 Citation: Fagin, T.D., Vadjunec, J.M., Boardman, A., Hinsdale, L.M., (In review). Use of Participatory sUAS in Resilient Socioecological Systems (SES) Agroecosystem Research: A Review and Case Study from the Southern Great Plain, USA. Citizen Science: Theory and Practice
4. Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2024 Citation: Paye, W.S., L.M. Lauriault, P. Acharya, and R. Ghimire. 2024. Soil carbon and nitrogen responses to forage cropping systems following irrigation retirement. Agronomy Journal https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.21523
5. Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2023 Citation: Hinsdale, L., Carrasco, B., Curry, A., Taylor, C., Fagin, T., Vadjunec, J., (2023) Fostering Education on Groundwater Management: A Participatory Approach in Cimarron County, Oklahoma, Oklahoma Governorās Water Conference, OSU Water Center, Norman, OK. (Poster)
6. Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2023 Citation: Vadjunec, J., Fagin, T., Hinsdale, L., Carrasco, B., (2023) Understanding Socio-Ecological Risk as Hyperobject: An Example from the High Plains/Ogallala Aquifer. Geography 2050: The Changing Map of Risk, Hazards, & Finance, American Geographical Society Fall Symposium, Columbia University, New York, NY. Oral Presentation.
7. Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2023 Citation: Singh, A., R. Ghimire, and P. Acharya. 2023. Cover crops impact on soil health under corn-sorghum rotation in semi-arid regions. ASA-CSSA-SSSA International Annual Meeting, Saint Louis, MO. https://scisoc.confex.com/scisoc/2023am/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/149787
8. Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2023 Citation: Ghimire R. (2023) Improving health and productivity of western soils: building on Jay Nortonās work in agroecosystems. ASA-CSSA-SSSA International Annual Meeting, Saint Louis, MO (Invited symposium presentation).
9. Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2023 Citation: Steele, C., Elias, E., Aney, S., Ramsey, P., Kramer, L., Dinan, M., Peterson, C. (2023) Preparing for a drier future: the feasibility of farm-level adaptation options in the Upper Rio Grande. GC33N - Water Scarcity and Water Security in a Changing World II Poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2023, San Francisco, CA.